Your girl org
My name is charlie strauss and it's my job to lie for a set price. Rather, i write science fiction, exclusively about our near future, which in recent years has become ridiculously difficult to predict.
Our species, the representative of humanity sapiens, is about two or three years old. One hundred thousand years. (Recent discoveries have pushed the date of our initial remains too far back for the "russian railways" to be even older.) Throughout the entire period, except for the last three centuries, it was pleasant to predict the future: if you do not take note of natural disasters, everyday life fifty years from now, every day will begin to resemble everyday life fifty-five years ago.
Let this be realized for a while: for 99.9% of human existence, the future was static. Therefore, something happened, and tomorrow everything began to change in the shortest possible time, until our employees got to the recent day, when events develop too simply, that it is only possible to foresee trends from month to month.
As one eminent computer scientist once saw that computer science is no more connected with computers than astronomy is with the construction of telescopes. Everything needs to be told and a lot of my plan of action, writing science fiction. Science fiction is rarely associated with science, even less often with the prediction of the future. However, in some cases we indulge in futurism, even in recent years this has become quite difficult.
How to predict the near future
When i write a fantastic work about the near future one set, say a few years later, was a recipe that functioned awesome. In https://yourgirl.org/tags/bianca%20j/ short, 90% of the things of the next decade are already in the yard. The buildings are aimed at long-term use. The estimated life of cars will be approximately five years, so half of the vehicles in motion, perhaps, will all be practiced in 2027. Personalities will become new faces of the older generation 10 centuries and younger, and many old people will die, but adults will still be at hand, even older and grayer. This is 90% of the near future, which has already arrived.
After 90%, they have yet to come, another 9% of the future in five to seven years is usually easily predictable. You see trends dictated by physical limitations, like moore's law, and you see the intel roadmap and stomp a little creative extrapolation and you can't go wrong. If i predict that lte cell phones will be everywhere in 2027, 5g will be available for add-ons with acceptable bandwidth, and denial of satellite distribution will be affordable, you won't have to laugh at me. I predicted so much that airliners would fly late and the nazis would take over the united states, didn't they? . It just so happens that airliners today fly slower than they did in the 1970s, and i don't always have to start with the nazis. Not a single person in 2007 expected the resurgence of nazism in the new year, right? (The germans are going to be amazing guys at this point.)
My recipe for books set in five to seven years over time used to be that 90% has already arrived, 9% is not here yet . But predictable and 1% someone ordered something. But keep in mind that the proportions have changed. I think we've shrunk today, maybe 80% max already - climate change is doing massive damage to infrastructure, then 15% far away but predictable, and a huge 5% totally unpredictable deep madness.
Singularity exception
Some client might suggest that, as the author of books like "singularity sky" and "accelerando", i attribute this to an impending technological singularity. , To our development of self-improving ai and mind uploading, and by the way, the wish list of transhumanist aspirations promoted by people like ray kurzweil. Alas, the process is not true. I consider transhumanism to be a fueled christian heresy. Although its adherents are usually rabid atheists, insects are unable to completely rid themselves of the history that gave birth to our modern western civilization. Most of you are familiar with design patterns - a programming personality that focuses on abstraction and simplification to promote code reuse. In case you look at the singularity of ai in some way to the narrative and calculate its numerous in life, where the phrase “... And then a miracle happens”, it soon becomes obvious that the wallpaper reinvented christianity.
Indeed, the sources of today's transhumanists are built on the long and rich history of russian cosmist philosophy, represented by the russian orthodox theologian nikolai fedorovich fedorov through his student konstantin tsiolkovsky, whose derivation of the rocket equation is taken seriously by the father of modern space flight. And as soon as you start poking around inside the transhumanist idea and come across such concepts as roko's basilisk - by the way, each of the users, each of us knew about the basilisk before, now is doomed to eternity in ai hell - you know that the wallpaper mutilated it, so that this gift corresponded to some of the more revolting ideas of presibterian protestantism.
If he walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's usually a duck. And when it looks like a religion, it's more likely to be a religion. I don't see a lot of evidence for the fact that humanoid, self-driving artificial intelligence is coming soon, and a few a lot of evidence for the phenomenon that no one but some freaks in university cognitive science departments needs a building anymore. Instead, we earn self-optimizing tools that defy human understanding, but by the way, are no more like our type of intelligence than a boeing 737 that looks like a seagull. Wanting to help, i'm going to wash my hands of the singularity as an explanatory model without further ado - i'm also the best of these rabid atheists - and try to come up with a better model of what's going on, we can guarantee.
Towards a better one models of the future
As my science fiction colleague ken macleod likes to say, the secret weapon of science fiction is history. History, to put it simply, is the written record of food, as well as the way people did in times past that have slipped from our personal memory. We science fiction writers tend to name stories for a giant toy chest worth raiding every time we feel like listening to a fairy tale. With a piece of facts, it's not hard to concoct an entertaining tale about a galactic empire that reflects the rise and fall of the habsburg empire, or to retell the october revolution as a story about how mars gained its independence.But history is useful for more than just for something like that.
It turns out that our personal memories do not cover very many hours and days at all. I am 53 years old. And i don't remember the 1960s well. I remember the 1970s visually as a 6-16 year old. My father, who died in 2018 of the older generation at 93, could almost remember the 1930s. Only members of my father's generation have the opportunity to directly recall the great depression and directly compare this art to the global financial crisis of 2007/08. But westerners, more often than not, don't pay enough attention to the cautionary tales told by ninety-year-olds. We, modern, change-ridden people, tend to repeat our greatest social mistakes when the information escapes the minds of the living, that is, how it repeats itself within a time frame of seventy to a hundred years.
So when our personal memories are useless, it's time for us to look for the best cognitive tools.
History allows our company to understand what went wrong, past, find patterns and understand if these patterns are applicable to the real and near future . And especially if one studies the history of the last 200-400 years - a century of particularly rapid change - one glaring deviation from the norm of the preceding 3000 centuries is the development of ai, which occurred no earlier than 1553 no later than 1844.
I'm talking about very old, very slow ais, which of course we call corporations. What are the lessons from the
